Why Aren’t Home Prices Crashing?
There have been a lot of shifts in the housing market recently. Mortgage rates rose dramatically last year, impacting many people’s ability to buy a home. And after several years of rapid price appreciation, home prices finally peaked last summer. These changes led to a rise in headlines saying prices would end up crashing.Even though we’re no longer seeing the buyer frenzy that drove home values up during the pandemic, prices have been relatively flat at the national level. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), doesn’t expect that to change:“[H]ome prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”You might think sellers would have to lower prices to attract buyers in today’s market, and that’s part of why some may have been waiting for prices to come crashing down. But there’s another factor at play – low inventory. And according to Yun, that’s limiting just how low prices will go:“We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”As you can see in the graph below, we’ve been at or near record-low inventory levels for a few years now.That lack of available homes on the market is putting upward pressure on prices. Bankrate puts it like this:“This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equation simply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.”If more homes don’t come to the market, a lack of supply will keep prices from crashing, and, according to industry expert Rick Sharga, inventory isn’t likely to rise significantly this year:“I believe that we’re likely to see low inventory continue to vex the housing market throughout 2023.”Sellers are under no pressure to move since they have plenty of equity right now. That equity acts as a cushion for homeowners, lowering the chances of distressed sales like foreclosures and short sales. And with many homeowners locked into low mortgage rates, that equity cushion isn’t going anywhere soon.With so few homes available for sale today, it’s important to work with a trusted real estate agent who understands your local area and can navigate the current market volatility.
Two Reasons You Should Sell Your House
Wondering if you should sell your house this year? As you make your decision, think about what’s motivating you to consider moving. A recent survey from realtor.com asked why homeowners are thinking about selling their houses this year. Here are the top two reasons (see graphic below):Let’s break those reasons down and explore how they might resonate with you.1. I Want To Take Advantage of the Current Market and Make a ProfitWhen you decide to sell your house, how much you’ll make from the sale will likely be top of mind. So, here’s some good news: according to the latest data, the average seller can expect a strong return on their investment when they make a move. ATTOM explains: “The $112,000 profit on median-priced home sales in 2022 represented a 51.4% return on investment compared to the original purchase price, up from 44.6% last year and from 32.8% in 2020.”Even though home prices have declined slightly in some markets, they’re still much higher overall than they were just a few years ago. To understand what’s happening with home prices in your area and the current value of your house, work with a local real estate professional. They can give you the best advice on how much you could gain if you sell this year.2. My Home No Longer Meets My NeedsThe average person has been in their house for ten years. That’s a long time when you think about how much may have changed in your life since you moved in. And typically, those changes have a direct impact on what you need in a home. Whether it’s more (or less) space, different features, or a location closer to your work or loved ones, your current house may no longer check all the boxes of what feels like home to you. If that’s the case, it could be time to work with a real estate agent to find a better fit.
How Changing Mortgage Rates Can Affect You
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been bouncing between 6% and 7% this year. If you’ve been on the fence about whether to buy a home or not, it’s helpful to know exactly how a 1%, or even a 0.5%, mortgage rate shift affects your purchasing power. The chart below helps show the general relationship between mortgage rates and a typical monthly mortgage payment:Even a 0.5% change can have a big impact on your monthly payment. And since rates have been moving between 6% and 7% for a while now, you can see how it impacts your purchasing power as rates go down.What This Means for YouYou may be tempted to put your homebuying plans on hold in hopes that rates will fall. But that can be risky. No one knows for sure where rates will go from here, and trying to time them for your benefit is tough. Lisa Sturtevant, Housing Economist at Bright MLS, explains:“It is typically a fool’s errand for a homebuyer to try to time rates in this market . . . But volatility in mortgage rates right now can have a real impact on buyers’ monthly payments.”That’s why it’s critical to lean on your expert real estate advisors to explore your mortgage options, understand what impacts mortgage rates, and plan your homebuying budget around today’s volatility. They’ll also be able to offer advice tailored to your specific situation and goals, so you have what you need to make an informed decision.
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